A Spatially Explicit Crop Yield Model to Simulate Agricultural Productivity for Past Societies under Changing Environmental Conditions

Most contemporary crop yield models focus on a small time window, operate plot location, or do not include the effects of changing environment, which makes it difficult to use these assess agricultural sustainability for past societies. In this study, adaptions were made agronomic AquaCrop model. This adapted model was ran cover last 4000 years simulate impact climate and land changes, as well soil dynamics, productivity winter wheat crops Mediterranean mountain environment in SW Turkey. has been spatially explicit, allows hydrological interactions between different landscape positions, whilst computational is kept limited by implementing parallelisation schemes supercomputer. The calibrated validated using information sampled during 2015 2016 harvest periods. Simulated yields show strong control precipitation, while changes thickness following erosion, lesser extent re-infiltration runoff along slope catena also have significant yield. latter especially important valleys, where water accumulate. results that export central valley strongly increased (up four times) deforestation resulting erosion hillslopes, turning into marsh rendering unsuitable cultivation.